Bakes' Takes Podcast 3/31/20
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Tuesday March 31, 2020 Show Notes As bad as your life is currently, you are not the Tiger King https://www.netflix.com/title/81115994?source=35 or the other people in that Netflix documentary. At minimum you have better teeth than them. Please watch the show. Great perspective. 25+ years, fourth bear, ’87, ’00, ’08, NOW https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2qixsxtHOU&t=654s https://anchor.fm/bakestakes Bakes’ Takes---Presentation to Pine Hills Investment Club September 10, 2019 9/10/19 3/31/20 SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 298.13 257 -14% GLD (Gold ETF) 140.18 148 +6% Cash Flat Campbell’s Soup (CPB) 45.89 46.11 Flat 0:00 Wow, I have to lose weight. Pinstripes are not as slimming as I thought. (I’ve lost 10 pounds, another stubborn 20 to go). 2:56 Consult an advisor, build core plan to support your lifestyle, cash, insurance, etc. Then invest in individual stocks. 3:44 This is the oldest bull market ever. Monte Carlo simulations don’t have these circumstances in their databases. 5:20 We have never seen $17 trillion of negative yielding government bonds. 5:48 We have never seen U.S. interest rates cut in half in one year. 6:20 You should have 5-10 reasons to buy a stock. 10:30 Own a little more cash, a little more gold because we have not seen this movie before. 12:20 The best-looking chart in the S&P 500 is Campbell Soup/CPB. Reasons to buy—12% of shares short, new CEO, new CFO, new Head of Soup Division, 3.1% dividend yield. Selling $2.5 billion of divestitures not closed yet, balance sheet and dividend coverage improving. Skeptical Wall Street analysts. 16:22 How to sell. Close below the 200-day moving average—sell 1/3. When 50 dma slices down through 200 dma sell another 1/3. By the time 200 dma turns down, sell the last 1/3. $60 for Cisco/CSCO 2000 example. Declined to $12 a year later. 32:00 The stock market impacts who is elected President not the other way around. (3/31/20 update—President Biden now very likely.) 36:53 You don’t own a recession, jobless claims, employment ETF. You own a piece of a business. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/weekly.pdf p.4 “buy the dip” still in favor, bottom not reached until optimism nowhere to be found p. 5 Gold, Bitcoin, risk-parity, greatest algorithmic fund, all down p.6 The more you want to garner potential gains and don’t mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest. And vice versa. https://www.macrovoices.com/813-macrovoices-211-jim-bianco Jim Bianco on Erik Townsend’s MACROVoices Podcast. At 42 minutes he discusses stocks AND bonds Declining together. Jim and Erik are both great. https://www.barrons.com/authors/7308 Jack Hough is one of 7 funny investment writers on the planet. I highly recommend his column, podcast and Barron’s Roundtable show on Fox. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5pgG1M_h_U Some Good News—John Krasinski. https://art19.com/shows/the-jeselnik-rosenthal-vanity-project JRVP---Much needed levity in these times. Please send email and/or subscribe and review my Bakes’ Takes Podcast and YouTube Channel, follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Thank you. Bakes