Bakes' Takes Podcast - Episode 17 - 6/27/20

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 27, 2020   :24 1) President Biden? :29 2) Energy prices wild ride, respond to question from new XOM employee :41 3) And now for something completely different! Led Zep and Pink Floyd financed Holy Grail! You’re welcome!   Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week!   1:27 After Stocks’ Huge Quarter, It’s Time to Hedge the Market By  Randall W. Forsyth Updated June 26, 2020 5:00 pm ET / Original June 26, 2020 12:12 pm ET  randall.forsyth@barron’s.com   Through Thursday, the S&P 500 index had recovered 38% from its March 23 lows, Nasdaq Composite up 46% and set record this past week, and the RU2K index of small-cap stocks 43%.   3:00 SPY -4.5% YTD, doubt many bought at the low!   3:20 The Dow Just Had a Very Bad Week. Why It Could Get Worse. By  Ben Levisohn Ben.Levisohn@barrons.com June 26, 2020 8:19 pm ET The Fed, future payouts would depend on bank earnings—and bank earnings will start to look worse as pre-coronavirus quarters drop out and are replaced by Covid-impaired results.   Florida’s seven-day average of cases grew 7.8%, previous day’s 4.1%. Arizona’s 5.4%, from 2.9%. In Texas, the positivity rate hit 11.8%. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order rolling back parts of the state’s reopening, too little, too late. Florida, for its part, is banning alcohol in bars. Huh? 5:00 “We’re at a challenging point,” says Clifton Hill, a PM at Acadian Asset Management. “The market is worried about a second outbreak.” 5:27 Biden’s lead in the polls over Donald Trump has been widening over the past month, now holding a 10-point advantage over the president, RealClearPolitics’ average of about a dozen national polls. Trump’s approval rating has fallen back near the lowest levels of his presidency. Betting markets like PredictIt, which until early June had Trump well ahead, now give an average 21-point lead to Biden. 5:53 “If the election were held today, we believe Vice President Joe Biden would win as part of a Democratic sweep,” Sara Bianchi, head of U.S. public policy and political strategy research at Evercore ISI, told clients earlier in June. 6:15 FDR GOAT. Trump market positive for now. All the Presidents with down markets, one term. vs. Reagan, Clinton, Obama etc. Stock market picks the president. 220 Trump Election, March low, stocks down for his term, he’s toast. 8:55 Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Cornerstone Macro, so-called Biden portfolio. Bakes’ Take—Hillary ’94, Healthcare then, Long infrastructure, short big tech, now likely not going to work. 9:57 If there is a Democratic sweep, Laperriere expects higher volatility driven by concerns over increased taxes and regulation. He recommends using the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures exchange-traded note (VXX), which tracks the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. I still think VIXM, VIXY, VXX going to work by year end. It’s month, Q end, researching all 1700+ charts now. Will report back next week Bulls factors in their favor: The Fed is highly supportive; Congress looks ready to add more stimulus; and treatments are slowly starting to lead to better health outcomes. uncertainty about those outcomes is causing volatility to spike, VIX, rising to the mid-30s on Friday, above its long-term average of 19.   11:18 “Right now, volatility in the stock market is heightened, because there is friction between the past, present, and future,” John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, tells Barron’s. “The future is looking past Covid. The present is dealing with Covid. The past is explaining what Covid has done.” The volatility is likely to continue. 11:59 India, HK, South China Sea, Taiwan 13:28 No cartoon but NK vs. SK escalating too https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/06/18/how-to-end-the-perilous-indo-chinese-border-spat brutal clash on June 15th. Details remain sketchy. At least 20 Indian soldiers died, many after tumbling into an icy river. India says the Chinese also su

Om Podcasten

Keeping you informed about money and markets in 30 minutes or less