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Bakes' Takes

Bakes' Takes Podcast Episode 23-8/18/20--Nuclear Winter for 60/40 Portfolios/No football? Esports to the rescue?/Is Gronk half-dolphin?

av Bakes' Takes | Publicerades 8/21/2020

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Sunday August 16, 2020 :28 1) Nuclear Winter for 60/40 Portfolios! Bonds prices are going down! Am I being vague? :37 2) No football? Esports to the rescue? D-1 sport? : 49 3) Thank you Jon, James, Murph, Charlie for your questions! Ladies? Bakes’ Takes—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! 1:35 Thank you also Samuel M. from Chicago, Barry P., Daryl C. from PA for subscribing to my YouTube channel! 1:46 Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com 2:02 Jon C., PA—SPX resistance $338 SPY resistance, $3380 SPX, wedging up, volume receding overall, down day volume greater than up volume, CNBC playing up too much IMO, here’s why... 3:22 I will watch intensely if/how we hit NH’s—volume? Follow-through? Close vs. intraday, I promise to keep you in the loop, market seems tired, I will stick with SUE 4:57 Jon, I don’t worry because I have scars, a plan, and a sell discipline! Hope this helps, pls respond if I need to expand or clarify! 6:25 Charlie S. PA— Thanks for another great episode Bakes, Thanks for another great episode and nice guitar skills. If only your son Jack was as talented as you.... I have a couple of questions: • What are your views on SPACs and their recent popularity/success? • 8:46 Do you think we're at an inflection point with regards to U.S Dollar dominance? Following the 2008 financial crisis- despite it being an American born crisis- the world fled to the safety of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets.Right now we're not seeing that. Do you think we're transitioning from a unipolar monetary system to a bi or even tripolar one? Thanks a lot! I'm a big fan and look forward to the Bakes' Takes website. Have a great weekend. Best, Charlie 7:31 SPAC’s above ’07 high, stock market peak. Bearish indicator. From July 25 show, Barron’s front page. 9:30 Dollar reserve currency? Not fiat. Euro, yuan? Podcast suggested an AMZN crypto, 60% of Americans Prime member? More trusted than FB. 10:56 James V. PA—Bill O’Neill, client since ’94, high PE’s ok, CANSLIM, Wilshire Blvd., mo works until it doesn’t, 13:46 MOATS=high multiples, shorts are kerosene, Mike DiCarlo—AOL, NSCP 14:36 Murph-NY—live below your means, pay yourself first 15:37 Month of expenses 401(k) max match—1/2 SPX, ½ ROW (Davis?), new HR benefits paperwork Pay off debts 3-6 months emergency fund Invest in tax-advantaged accounts—Roths? Invest more Have fun! 18:02 Bakes’ Takes—Bonds are going down! 18:15 MacroVoices-Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna, Vincent Deluard/StoneX—13-39 minutes, Gold is a high-yield asset! There Is No Good Scenario for Bonds Long-term treasuries have been a superb counter-cyclical investment in all recent bear markets: the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ year index rallied by 27% from January to April 20 this year and by 41% between June 2008 and December 2008. However, bonds’ upside is capped by how low yields can drop. … Going forward, it is impossible to imagine a realistic scenario in which the 60/40 portfolio continues to deliver high-single digit returns.. 19:42 https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-sameb-e700ba?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share Bakes’ Take—Reporters of the Week! Jon—dovetails to your question… 19:47 https://www.economist.com/business/2020/08/08/americas-stockmarkets-are-flying-high-its-companies-still-arent 21:26 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-investors-best-hedges-gold-and-tips-51596822059?mod=past_editions By Randall W. Forsyth But now, bonds have all but run out of basis points to decline. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovers just over 0.5%, while the 30-year offers a bit more than 1%. That has a lot of implications for portfolio managers, says Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, the big hedge fund. Not only do bonds yielding 0% provide no return over their lifetime, but their yields have little or no room to fall (assuming, as Prince does, that the U.S. won’t follow much of Europe and Japan into negative interest rates)... 23:28 Bakes’ Takes—Charts/Tweets of the Week 25:45 Much needed levity—Lenny Clarke asks Gronk if he Manscapes, “What are you, half-dolphin?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvy2OFN5BAc New episode

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