The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring
This podcast episode was recorded on April 4, 2022, and released to premium subscribers –without ads or announcements — that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing each market day morning. Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments. Content Highlights The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12); The "terrible energy efficiency" associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00); What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20); It's no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20); Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59); The ulterior motives behind China's green energy push (18:33); The "great hope" for a Moore's Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05); Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00); Background on the guest (33:42); What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, "the perfect solution to our problems" (37:17); Copper is "the quintessential green metal" also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26); Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world's largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on -- it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07); An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58). More Information About the Guest Website: GoRozen.com; Twitter: @GoRozen; LinkedIn; Link to Goehring & Rozencwajg video on the history of energy.