Helmand on the Brink, Again. With ANA Lt. Gen. Ahmadzai

This episode, the second from my recent trip to Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand, I speak with the most senior Afghan National Army (ANA) officer in the province, the commander of the Afghan National Army’s 215th Corps’,  Lt. Gen. Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai.I interviewed Gen. Ahmadzai on October 17, where, in the exact same guesthouse on the exact same day, two years earlier, one of his old army comrades, Abdul Jabar Qarahman, who President Ghani had sent to the city to oversee an effort to prevent its fall in 2016, was killed during a meeting by a bomb that had been placed under his chair. Both Ahmadzai and Qarahman were sent to Helmand in late 2016. At that time, the Taliban had virtually surrounded Lashkar Gah. The situation was much the same this October this year, only this time the Taliban had rolled government forces in the districts surrounding Helmand’s capital in a matter of days, not months. General Ahmadzai and I spoke about the orders he received following the February signing of the U.S. - Taliban Doha agreement, about how he personally felt about the orders and about how things have played out on the battlefield since then, with Ahmadzai repeatedly raising the Taliban’s refusal to adhere to the terms that were supposedly laid out in the Doha agreement.I asked him whether his orders to halt the ANA’s offensive operations and stay in their bases since Doha led to situations where his forces retaliated carelessly to Taliban attacks as reportedly happened in one incident in June where 50 civilians were killed or wounded in Sangin district.Gen. Ahmadzai told me about the relationship with the U.S. forces he’s worked with since taking command of the 215th corps and the conditions that led to the near-collapse of the province which led to his appointment in 2016. We also talked about what led to the repeat of 2016 last month and about the suspicion that some government outposts and checkpoints whose commanders had been appointed by officials in the government and were beholden to them rather than their military commanders had been surrendered without a fight. I should note that, had I interviewed Ahmadzai a day or two later, after having spoken to more Helmandis who’d been caught up in the government’s retreat, such as my guest on Episode 7, I’d have had more questions about the strength of the defence provided by forces under his command.AfterwordWith regards to Gen Ahmadzai's mention of the 125 Order, a representative of the National Security Council told Afghanistan After America there is no such thing, but that the decision to adopt a posture of active defensive after Doha was an Afghan government initiative. The deputy spokesperson from the Ministry of Defence (MOD) would not acknowledge the existence of the 125 Order, either, instead, also repeatedly referring to the ANSF’s posture of active defense, which, he said, was a demonstration of the government’s “will for peace.” With regards to the investigation into the events surrounding the June 29 incident in Sangin, the MOD’s deputy spokesperson told me that he would have to look into the matter and is yet to come back to me.Also on the topic of the Sangin incident, General Ahmadzai said in the interview that ANA mortars are incapable of reaching a target 5km away, which he says was the distance from the ANA base in Sangin to the bazaar that was struck. According to the U.S. Army’s website, however, and I quote: "81mm [mortar] rounds have a maximum effective range of 5,608 meters… [while] 120mm rounds can reach 7,200 meters…”

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In February this year, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement that charted a path to ending nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan. If all goes according to plan—and there is much to suggest it won’t—all foreign forces will depart in spring, 2021. Meanwhile, long-awaited intra-Afghan negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban are underway, once again in Doha.What will happen next? Will the Taliban uphold its side of the agreement with the U.S.? Will Trump even wait to find out? Will the Taliban concede to a ceasefire with the Afghan National Security Forces? And can President Ghani cling to power and steer the country toward peace? If the agreement fails, or indeed if it succeeds, how will history judge the United States for its role in Afghanistan? And what future will be left behind for Afghans who have variously thrived in, endured and raged against the well-intentioned occupation? As Afghanistan teeters, yet again, on a precipice between hope and despair, Afghanistan After America dissects the issues driving the decisions made in Washington D.C., Kabul, Doha and Quetta, and how they’re playing out on both sides of the battlefield, in the streets and inside homes, mosques and businesses across Afghanistan and beyond. Afghanistan After America draws from events of the past that continue to affect the present and explores Afghanistan’s rich and fraught history through some of those who’ve survived to tell their tales. Afghanistan After America is hosted by Andrew Quilty, an Australian journalist who has lived in Afghanistan since 2013 and reported from most of its provinces, collecting numerous accolades for his work along the way. Afghanistan After America is a place for conversations that go beyond the limits of mainstream media audiences. His guests are Afghans and outsiders from all walks of life with unique and confronting perspectives; they are leading analysts, thought-leaders, humanitarians, journalists, veterans and decision-makers from up and down the numerous tangled chains of command.