Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research, Societe Generale

Now the Global Head of Quantitative Research at Soc Gen, Andrew Lapthorne got an early taste in unconventional macro thinking from the likes of Albert Edwards and James Montier. Over a career spanning 25 years, Andrew has engaged in the study of market prices, seeking understanding in their levels and volatilities both on an absolute and relative basis. Out of this work comes a framework for helping investors identify, capture and defend against risk exposures. Our conversation considers some of the market vol episodes most formative to Andrew’s process. And here we travel all they way back to the late 1990’s when, post the Asian crisis, disinflation began to travel around the world, depressing bond yields and leading to increasingly active Central Banks. The result, a tech bubble and substantial de-rating of all assets cyclical. The GFC was, unsurprisingly, greatly instructive for Andrew as well, helping him appreciate the Merton “distance to default” risk that equity investors are subject to. In the balance of our discussion, we consider the here and now and learn of the work that Andrew and his team are doing for clients seeking refuge from inflation. In this context, he’s suggested that bond investors use “dangerous equity to hedge safe bonds”, an idea that identifies certain stocks, like those driven by an underlying commodity, as performing strongly during inflationary periods. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andrew Lapthorne.

Om Podcasten

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.