Steve Englander, Head of G10 FX and North America Macro Strategy, Standard Chartered

Market risk events come in all shapes and sizes, originating from unique sources of uncertainty. We've seen them all - valuation bubble unwinds, mortgage credit crashes, Fed policy shocks, even the shutdown of the US economy from Covid. Over the last month, investors have been forced to confront a new risk, that of the imposition of substantial tariffs by the US on its trading partners. With this in mind, it was great to welcome Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research of Standard and Chartered Bank, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion begins with Steven's assessment of the setup coming in to 2025 and that was one in which the market was long dollars in anticipation of the Trump agenda. We next talk about balance of payments identity math and how it is difficult to solve simultaneously for a lower trade deficit, higher direct investment from abroad and lower US interest rates. He suggests, however, that the speed with which asset prices moved in March and April, have complicated the decision-making process for investors thinking about making investments into the US. We next explore the factors driving the dollar lower. Here, in addition to noting that implied Fed cuts have increased by 50bps over the last month, Steven also suggests that a risk premium may be assigned by foreign investors to US assets. He points as well to pessimism about the US economy, noting that this is not yet showing up in the hard data. There's much more to learn about Steven's framework in our discussion, which I do hope you enjoy.

Om Podcasten

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.