US Rates Strategy: Core CPI inflation holds above 3%, but where is the love for TIPS?
US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally. Speaker: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.