Bakes' Takes podcast - Episode 15 - 6/17/20
Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday June 13, 2020 :18 1) If you listen to David Portnoy for Robinhood trades, at least listen to us as well. 2) We own 10% each VIXY, VIXM, volatility likely to increase. 1:00 3) Jeremy Grantham—Top 10% market valuation, bottom 10% economy. 1:20 VIXM—picking up on day market up big, not sure why. Volume impressive, 5x normal. 2:00 Thursday last week, we bought 10% each. Vol picking up. 2:21 10-year trend appears to be reversing. Up volume promising. 3:00 Forming base, $400 to $20, now at $40 or so. Any retracement of this reversed downtrend could be very profitable. 3:57 Please subscribe, share ask questions. We lay out our rationale. 5:16 Don’t use margin. Do use stop losses. Stay away from Hertz, Chesapeake, etc. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-swoon-as-mr-market-cant-seem-to-make-up-his-mind-51592009542?mod=past_editions by Randall Forsyth 6:51 But what Mr. Market seems to have gotten wrong was to bid up apparently worthless stocks, on the assumption that what goes down must bounce up. There was the spectacle of Hertz Global Holdings (ticker: HTZ) soaring more than 100% at the beginning of the week, even though the automobile rental company had filed for bankruptcy. https://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguards-new-robo-service-offers-low-cost-financial-and-retirement-advice-11591873200 7:28 Who’s used Vanguard’s new robo service? Pros? Cons? Robinhood? Schwab? Fidelity? Betterment? Acorn? Wealthfront? TD Ameritrade? E-Trade? Personal Capital? Stash? M1 Finance? Wealthsimple? Bloom? I appreciate the feedback! 9:27 Extreme bullish bets. 10:32 Top 10% stock market valuation, bottom 10% economy. 11:55 Ned Davis-great historical perspective. 12:10 Prior times -17%, -7.5%, -12%, -12%, -8%, -30%. 13:54 If resolves to the downside, SEF (short Financials could work). 14:40 Have to be honest this is bullish, at least was 6/5. 15:07 Have to be honest this is bullish, at least was 6/8. 15:30 60/40 -1.9% YTD, SPX -6.4%, AGG +5.0% 17:07 50/30/10/10 -0.4% YTD, SPX -6.4%, AGG +5.0%, GLD +13.6%, Cash 0% 17:45 Paul Macrae Montgomery—Magazine covers, especially non-business takes bullish stand, time to be contrarian. 18:12 Above euphoria level, 80% probability stocks lower one year later. Please subscribe, review and share my Bakes’ Takes Podcast on Apple, Spotify or your preferred platform. Please also subscribe to my Bakes’ Takes YouTube Channel, the audio is the same but the charts that I reference are on the screen. Follow us on Twitter @BakesTakes_ and other social media. Please use your voice memo app, tape your question(s) and email to bakes@bakestakespodcast.com or write if you prefer. I will also keep you anonymous is you’d like. Thank you for listening, Mike Wilson is my producer. Have a great week. Bakes 20:18 Much needed levity—Chris Porter, Wonka me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgJKivIqg3U