30 May 2023 - A recession is still possible in 2024
High inflation is going to remain a global economic factor for at least the rest of 2023 and possibly well into next year as Central Banks review plans to begin to pause the cycle of rate hikes. Inflation has fallen but not as fast as global bodies like the World Bank and the IMF had expected, and it is likely that they will have to again revise their predictions for the major, as well as developing economies. Although the ECB remains committed to defeating inflation by a seemingly continuous cycle of rate hikes, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had been considering a pause perhaps starting at their June meetings. Although headline inflation has fallen back into single figures in the United Kingdom according to the data for April, it has not fallen as quickly as had been expected, due mainly to continuing price rises in basic foodstuffs. Core inflation has become stuck at between 6% and 7% having risen from 6.2% to 6.8% last month. Beyond Currency Market Commentary: Aims to provide deep insights into the political and economic events worldwide that can cause currencies to change and how this can affect your FX Exposure.