The Upgrade: Episode 28: Material Shifts In Key Credit Stats Drove Downgrades To 'B-' And 'CCC'

In this discussion, Minesh Patel, the US sector lead of Leveraged Finance at S&P Global Ratings, teams up with the Director of Leveraged Finance, Hanna Zhang, to explore the key insights presented in Hanna's latest commentary, titled "U.S. Leveraged Finance Q1 2023 Update: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes -- Material Shifts In Key Credit Stats Drove Downgrades To 'B-' And 'CCC', And Upgrades To 'B-'." Key takeaways from the article include: Within 12 months leading to a rating action, higher debt service costs and slower profit growth were often the leading factors in downgrades to 'B-' and the 'CCC' category (CCC+/CCC/CCC-). Median leverage for companies downgraded to the 'CCC' category rose to 15.5x as EBITDA all but dried up. It was 8x for entities rated 'B-'. We estimate that roughly 37% of 'B' rated issuers employ interest rate hedges. Interest rate sensitivity for 'B-' rated companies is much higher, with roughly 19% employing hedges and 90% floating-rate debt exposure. Speculative-grade borrowers may be returning to cash preservation, but 2022 was loaded with shareholder rewards and heavy working capital investment for companies rated 'B+' and higher. Issues with recovery expectations within the 50%-70% range account for two-thirds of total new issuance in the first quarter of 2023, although average recovery expectations remain near the low end of the post-2017 average.  The commentary to the related article: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230504-leveraged-finance-u-s-leveraged-finance-q1-2023-update-ch-ch-ch-changes-material-shifts-in-key-credit-st-12711927 The hyperlink to the interactive dashboard. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research-insights/sector-intelligence/interactives/us-leveraged-finance-q1-2023      

Om Podcasten

Introducing Our CLO Podcasts Leveraged Finance & CLOs Uncovered Podcast Everything you ever wanted to know about CLOs, Corporate Credits, Leveraged Finance and what they are. With the aim of providing market participants with further advanced analytical insight into Corporate Credits, CLOs and Leveraged Finance deals, S&P Global Ratings is holding regular podcast episodes every fortnight, based on key features we’re seeing in corporate credits and sectors that CLOs are exposed to. The Upgrade The U.S. Leveraged Finance and Recovery team is producing a monthly podcast series entitled “The Upgrade.” This series focuses on leveraged finance issuers that have upward rating potential, providing listeners with concise insights from the primary analyst along with relevant CLO market implications. In the time of Covid-19, other timely topics are also being discussed.