The Biden Economy, the Weimar Republic, and Conte's Close Call

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of the economy.  I predict we will see three distinct phases. In the next few weeks, the economy will continue to decelerate, with accompanying market turbulence, to the mobility drop associated with Covid-19. But going forward over the next several months into the summer, both will go strongly positive, buoyed by the vaccine and Biden stimulus. In 2H, however, look for outlook to darken just when the party is rockin'--due to rising inflation expectations, Covid-19's adaptive mutations, and a new form of political "resistance."25,000 National Guard troops patrol DC. Capitol Hill hasn't seen this many armed soldiers since 1865. Reflecting on the storming of the Capitol, I draw parallels between the present-day and Hitler's failed "beer hall putsch" in 1923.  Will Biden scrap Trump's executive order? Last year, Trump signed an executive order that US stock exchanges must delist companies working with the Chinese military. Biden has yet to comment on the issue. But with his priorities focused on C19 and growing bipartisan support for being tough on China, he will likely let it stand for the time being.Italian PM Giuseppe Conte survives a confidence vote. In Italy, former PM Matteo Renzi removed his party from the ruling coalition. This sparked an immediate confidence vote in parliament. PM Giuseppe Conte easily received a majority of votes in the lower chamber. The Senate was a different situation. He narrowly received the most votes but did not secure a majority. Why is the Conte regime still hanging on? Probably because the deputies want to avoid a legislated one-third downsizing of their number due to go into effect as soon as there is another government. Conte will hobble on, greatly weakened.In 2020, the share of eligible Americans who actually voted was 66.7%. This was higher than in any year since 1900. This follows the off-year election of 2018, in which the share was the highest in 104 years.

Om Podcasten

Exciting news for all listeners: Neil Howe's podcast is undergoing an exciting transformation and emerging with a brand-new name—"Trend Watch". From now on, all upcoming episodes will be exclusively available in full on Substack. But that's not all—Neil's new Substack newsletter launching August 21, 2023, will feature thought-provoking insights on demographic, economic, and generational trends. Stay informed, stay engaged, and stay ahead of the trends! Visit: www.demographyunplugged.com to subscribe. Neil Howe’s podcast is designed to help savvy investors and business leaders uncover hidden trends and critical developments driving world markets and economies. It’s like peering into the future. Discover the likely winners (and losers) of “big ideas” as renowned demographer Neil Howe – the guy who coined the term “Millennial” – distills game-changing new developments down to their essence.Neil Howe is an acclaimed historian, economist, and demographer and the bestselling author (with William Strauss) of The Fourth Turning, the New York Times Bestselling follow-up book, The Fourth Turning is Here, as well as over a dozen books on demographic and social change. The nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future—Howe is Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates, which serves hundreds of corporate, nonprofit, and government clients.