Forecasting how things will Evolve
Different approaches to forecasting future trends. This is the first of two episodes on how to think about the way the future might Evolve (question three in our six-question framework). There are two broad approaches depending on how predictable you think the future is. in this episode we assume that you can have a decent guess at how the future should evolve and thus you can try and make a forecast. We cover the general principles (have good data and have a good model) and the various models that you can use (e.g., linear growth, exponential growth, S curve, lifecycle, and disruptive innovation). Charlie illustrates these approaches through an example from his own experience as a strategy analyst.