DHUnplugged #723: Race To The End
Bulls remain in charge Data not important - down the road all will be fine Seasonality - Race to the End CPI and PPI - conflicting PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com Warm-Up - Bulls remain in charge - Data not important - down the road all will be fine - Seasonality - Race to the End - Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year. - Musk pulls a fast one Markets - CPI and PPI - conflicting - Bank earnings - so far so good - Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead - US Chips and Exports - roughed up market Economics This Week - Import and Export Prices - Retail Sales - Philly Fed - Industrial Production - Housing Starts - Building Permits Of Interest: NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. - So inflation is a bit more sticky than Recession - No Says Goldman - Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15% Seasonality - The Race until the end - Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost... - End of year from here favors the bulls - Could have a few complications with the election right in between but electoral promises will be helpful for markets Markets Worried? - Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis - NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East - Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them - The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security - ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector Fed Powers - Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it ELON - Pulling a fast one - Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg - Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere) - Isn't that fraud? Example of promises hitting the wires - Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters - Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America - Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon) Consumer Confidence - Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident - Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month JPM Earnings - JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall. - Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase. - Official: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates.