“National Security Is Not International Security: A Critique of AGI Realism” by Conrad K.
This is a link post. TL;DRs Introduction Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability…at least for a while 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does) 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly 9. We should [...] ---Outline:(01:25) TL;DRs(06:21) Introduction(09:05) Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI(09:13) 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability...at least for a while(16:35) 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety(23:04) Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony(23:11) 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security(29:55) 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does)(34:50) 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI(41:18) 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks(49:55) Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies(50:04) 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance(55:29) 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly(01:01:31) 9. We should be prioritise the mitigating of risks through scope-sensitive policies(01:05:57) 10. We need alternatives to AGI realismThe original text contained 60 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 2nd, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gpWg4jvkE4poet7Nk/national-security-is-not-international-security-a-critique --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.