“The case for multi-decade timelines [Linkpost]” by Sharmake
At the request of @Vasco Grilo🔸 in a post that I can't get out of drafts, here's the full linkpost. Original post is below: So this post is an argument that multi-decade timelines are reasonable, and the key cruxes that Ege Erdil has with most AI safety people who believe in short timelines are due to the following set of beliefs: Ege Erdil don't believe that trends exist that require AI to automate everything in only 2-3 years. Ege Erdil doesn't believe that the software-only singularity is likely to happen, and this is perhaps the most important crux he has with AI people like @Daniel Kokotajlo who believe that a software-only singularity is likely. Ege Erdil expects Moravec's paradox to bite hard once AI agents are made in a big way. This is a pretty important crux, because if this is true, a lot more serial research agendas [...] ---Outline:(04:06) Trend extrapolations don't point towards short timelines(09:21) A software singularity is unlikely(12:44) AI agents will need a lot of compute to automate all remote work(18:21) Conclusion--- First published: April 27th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tTzztd2vuDj8Nt7jC/the-case-for-multi-decade-timelines-linkpost --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.