Gerard Minack (Minack Advisors) - The End of Secular Stagnation

Gerard Minack has a wealth of experience as a macro strategist and founded Minack Advisors in 2013.  Gerard has been particularly prescient over the last 18 months, highlighting the probability of rising inflation and higher interest rates well before many others.  We discuss how the pandemic changed Gerard's macro views, why he believes secular stagnation has come to an end and what implications that has for investors in the years ahead.  Gerard also talks about why he believes a recession in the US next year is more likely than not.Show notes:[1:19] Gerard talks about joining the industry on Black Monday in 1987[2:17] Founding Minack Advisors after a successful career in big investment banks[6:49] The end of secular stagnation [11:34] The implications of such a change[14:06] Most investors still underestimate the possibility of secular change[15:52] The risk of recession isn't adequately priced by markets[17:25] Why Gerard believes this will be a two part bear market with a recession hitting earnings next year[20:35] Equities usually trough a few months before the end of a recession[25:00] Labour inflation and why the Federal Reserve's job is so hard[27:08] The winners of the next decade[33:11] Private assets and why it is becoming harder to generate alpha[35:27] Why Gerard thinks US government bonds may now be a good place to hide[37:28] The credit cycle[40:20] Do a job that you enjoy

Om Podcasten

Far From The Finishing Post explores the ideas and practices of leading investors in an effort to continuously grow our collective knowledge. This podcast is intended for UK listeners only. The views and information contained within this podcast do not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for investment decisions. Any reference to securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities. Any opinions expressed are those of the relevant individuals and do not necessarily reflect the views of Troy Asset Management and may be subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of an investment may fall as well as rise.