Net zero realism
It’s time for climate realism. The political rhetoric of low costs and ever-falling energy bills has inevitably collided with the reality of the actual costs of the transition. Renewables might be zero marginal cost, but this ignores not only the fixed and sunk costs, but also the intermittency problem and the need for subsidies and the associated back-up for a long time to come. The supply chain supporting the new electricity and transport technologies stretches to mining and refining in China, South East Asia and Russia. Very little is mined, refined or fabricated in the UK, and these supply chains are far from net zero. The consumer will need to pay the costs to fund all these investments; costs that are now higher due to the higher interest rates. The narrative needs to be changed. It’s not going to be an almost free lunch. If it is, then we can stop the subsidies right now. But we can’t and we shouldn’t. Net zero realism requires honesty about the actual costs that need to be paid, and the necessity of reducing our carbon consumption and measuring our emissions properly. To really help reduce global emissions, there are three things we in the UK should focus on: offshore wind; carbon capture and storage (CCS); and scientific research to develop decarbonising technologies. Concentrating on these globally significant investments rather than trying to do everything is the best way to make the UK’s contribution. If we are not going to be honest, the risk is that the rise of AfD in Germany and the farmers’ party in the Netherlands, and the Republican march in the US will sink the whole project, with all the terrible consequences that may follow. For more on this, read my paper: Net Zero Realism - https://dieterhelm.co.uk/natural-capital-environment/net-zero-realism/