Episode 982: Think Tank: Europe LNG supplies break records, but cold winter could see prices soar
Although Europe liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is soaring, prices could rise sharply next winter as region competes with Asia for limited volumes. - Spike in demand from cold winter could disrupt supply/demand balance- Europe would have to pay premium for LNG to attract cargoes- LNG the largest single source of gas in Europe is LNG- LNG has risen from 5-10% of Europe supply to 38% in 2023- Equates roughly to peak of Russian supplies- US LNG became second largest source for Europe in 2022- Little new LNG production globally in 2023/24 - From 2026/7 new sources of LNG globally may push prices down- Global supply could rise from 400m tonnes/year now to 600m tonnes/year by 2030- High cost base in Europe is driving chemicals investment elsewhere- Some China polymers see negative 2023 demand growth