In Moscow's Shadows 58: Ukrainian thoughts, welcome to stagnation, and more 2022 predictions

With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will stay in Syria through 2022 (yes) and whether Bortnikov will retire (also yes). I talk about putative FSB director-elect Korolev in a piece for Raam op Rusland here, and talked about the debate over recognising the Donbas pseudo-states in this IMS episode. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Om Podcasten

Russia, behind the headlines as well as in the shadows. This podcast is the audio counterpart to Mark Galeotti's blog of the same name, a place where "one of the most informed and provocative voices on modern Russia", can talk about Russia historical and (more often) contemporary, discuss new books and research, and sometimes talk to other Russia-watchers. If you'd like to keep the podcast coming and generally support my work, or want to ask questions or suggest topics for me to cover, do please contribute to my Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/InMoscowsShadowsThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.