Jesse Livermore – The Search for the Truth with the Anonymous Master - [Invest Like the Best, EP.136]
This week I have a very special guest years in the making. Like another favorite episode, with anonymous guest Modest Proposal, this conversation is with one of the stars of the financial twitter universe who writes anonymously and goes by the pseudonym Jesse Livermore. I met Jesse 6 years ago after reading his unbelievably unique investing research, which tackled all the big and interesting issues in markets. He now also works with me as a research partner at OSAM, where’s he’s used our data to continue to his search for truth in markets. Despite being one of the brightest minds I’ve encountered he is also as humble and unassuming as they come. I’m at least a slightly better person because of trying to emulate how he conducts himself. I get to have many conversations with him that go from 0-100 fast, and I’m thrilled to be able to share one of those with you. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Show Notes 1:33 - (First Question) – Jesse’s origin story for investing 4:37 – Exploring his ways of problem solving starting with intuitive 7:53 – David Epstein Podcast Episode 11:46 – Looking at the analytical way of problem solving 15:42 – Statistical inference 24:45 – Should we opt for simplicity in the investment process 25:26 – Does his own investing include all three, intuition, analysis, and statistics 26:09 – The evolution of his research, process, and thinking on various investment factors. 31:38 – Thoughts on inflation and its impact on market valuation 40:05 – The Earnings Mirage 46:25 – Free Cash flow and valuations 50:51 – What should investors take away from this research 53:01 – Thoughts on trend as an interesting market signal 59:00 – The problems with trend 1:00:34 – Post on “The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns” 1:11:15 – His work into understanding factors 1:15:36 – Looking at momentum 1:18:16 – His curiosity into the current market cycle 1:20:04 – Lessons learned from his time in the military, an effective way to create an environment where people can safely disagree with their co-workers 1:30:10 – The concept of progress in meaningful work 1:33:08 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag