Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?
🌍 Global Markets Rundown Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher. SA gold stocks (YTD performance): Pan African Resources +106% Harmony +76% AngloGold Ashanti* +72% Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues) Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025 📉 Recession Watch Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.” Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty. Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation). Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds. China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system. 💸 Currency Check The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD. Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100. Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving. 📊 ETFs & Resources Rally Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD. Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy. 📈 Local Market Highlights Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out: Strong results: HEPS up 204%. Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue. Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week. Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order