#119 Causal Inference, Fiction Writing and Career Changes, with Robert Kubinec

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)Takeaways:Bob's research focuses on corruption and political economy.Measuring corruption is challenging due to the unobservable nature of the behavior.The challenge of studying corruption lies in obtaining honest data.Innovative survey techniques, like randomized response, can help gather sensitive data.Non-traditional backgrounds can enhance statistical research perspectives.Bayesian methods are particularly useful for estimating latent variables.Bayesian methods shine in situations with prior information.Expert surveys can help estimate uncertain outcomes effectively.Bob's novel, 'The Bayesian Hitman,' explores academia through a fictional lens.Writing fiction can enhance academic writing skills and creativity.The importance of community in statistics is emphasized, especially in the Stan community.Real-time online surveys could revolutionize data collection in social science.Chapters:00:00 Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Bob Kubinec06:01 Bob's Academic Journey and Research Focus12:40 Measuring Corruption: Challenges and Methods18:54 Transition from Government to Academia26:41 The Influence of Non-Traditional Backgrounds in Statistics34:51 Bayesian Methods in Political Science Research42:08 Bayesian Methods in COVID Measurement51:12 The Journey of Writing a Novel01:00:24 The Intersection of Fiction and AcademiaThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell,...

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Are you a researcher or data scientist / analyst / ninja? Do you want to learn Bayesian inference, stay up to date or simply want to understand what Bayesian inference is? Then this podcast is for you! You'll hear from researchers and practitioners of all fields about how they use Bayesian statistics, and how in turn YOU can apply these methods in your modeling workflow. When I started learning Bayesian methods, I really wished there were a podcast out there that could introduce me to the methods, the projects and the people who make all that possible. So I created "Learning Bayesian Statistics", where you'll get to hear how Bayesian statistics are used to detect black matter in outer space, forecast elections or understand how diseases spread and can ultimately be stopped. But this show is not only about successes -- it's also about failures, because that's how we learn best. So you'll often hear the guests talking about what *didn't* work in their projects, why, and how they overcame these challenges. Because, in the end, we're all lifelong learners! My name is Alex Andorra by the way, and I live in Estonia. By day, I'm a data scientist and modeler at the PyMC Labs consultancy. By night, I don't (yet) fight crime, but I'm an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to the python packages PyMC and ArviZ. I also love election forecasting and, most importantly, Nutella. But I don't like talking about it – I prefer eating it. So, whether you want to learn Bayesian statistics or hear about the latest libraries, books and applications, this podcast is for you -- just subscribe! You can also support the show and unlock exclusive Bayesian swag on Patreon!