57: Forecasting the next downturn, with Justin Onuekwusi and Emiel van den Heiligenberg

Question: Are people at parties talking to you about stocks?    If the answer is ‘yes’ then (1) you could be going to the wrong sorts of parties or, more likely, (2) this could be a qualitative indicator that the economy is in ‘bubble’ territory.   This episode looks at the ways investors can use quantitative and qualitative indicators to try and forecast the next economic recession. After a valiant attempt to explain the economic cycle in just one sentence, Emiel van den Heiligenberg, Head of Asset Allocation, discusses why the triggers of the next downturn will be different and why cycle dynamics means that resilient portfolio construction is more important than ever.   Also joining the podcast is resident Yogi Berra expert and Head of Retail Multi-Asset Funds, Justin Onuekwusi, on how he integrates these indicators and behavioural economics into his portfolio strategy and how the market is ‘like déjà vu all over again’.   To find out more about his eponymous ‘Heiligenberg Index’, read Emiel’s latest blog here: https://macromatters.lgim.com/categories/strategy/i-have-a-fascination-for-market-bubbles/?cid=lgimtalks    ·         Emiel van den Heiligenberg, Head of Asset Allocation ·         Justin Onuekwusi, Head of Retail Multi-Asset Funds ·         Eliza Grimond, Content Manager   We want to hear from you! Email us at mark.chappel@lgim.com with your thoughts on the podcast and any suggestions of the types of content you’d like to see covered.     This podcast is intended for investment professionals, and shouldn’t be shared with a non-professional audience. This podcast should not be taken as an invitation to deal in Legal & General investments. Any views expressed during this recording belong to the individuals and are based on market conditions at the time of recording, and do not reflect the views of Legal & General Investment Management. Legal & General Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Legal & General Investment Management, One Coleman Street, London, EC2R 5AA. Register in England no. 2091894. All rights reserved. No part of this audio may be reproduced in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Legal & General Investment Management.

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What does a changing world mean for my portfolio? Which asset classes are undervalued? Will declining demographics affect my investments? From L&G’s Asset Management division, we bring you conversations about the global economy and how professional investors can take advantage of these opportunities. We'll be talking to fund managers, analysts, industry experts and more to discuss the latest market and political developments, their most exciting asset allocation ideas and how they're optimising portfolios for market booms and economic gloom. From Trump's tariffs to irrational investors, L&G Talks Asset Management dives into the world of asset management and brings you our most compelling thoughts to help you make informed investment decisions. To find out more, visit https://am.landg.com/en-uk/institutional/insights/ L&G has been helping customers since 1836. A founding member of the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index, L&G is one of the UK's leading financial services companies serving UK customers for our life assurance, pensions, investments and general insurance plans.  This podcast is intended for investment professionals, and shouldn't be shared with a non-professional audience. This podcast should not be taken as an invitation to deal in L&G investments. Any views expressed during this recording belong to the individuals and are based on market conditions at the time of recording, and do not reflect the views of L&G. Legal & General Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Legal & General Investment Management, One Coleman Street, London, EC2R 5AA. Register in England no. 2091894. All rights reserved. No part of this audio may be reproduced in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Legal & General Investment Management.