Macro Strategy Views - Ineffective vaccines - the biggest tail-risk to the global recovery
In today’s podcast, we zoom in on the biggest tail-risk to the global economy in our view: If vaccines turn out not to be as effective as expected in the face of new virus mutations, then it is likely restrictions will have to remain in place for much longer than ‘just’ this spring. In our view, the implications of this scenario could easily be a fall in global equity markets of 15-20%, as the global economy could face another ‘lost year’, even if governments and central banks try to step in and support economies again. Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior US, UK and COVID-19 analyst Mikael Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.