Election Predictions and Polling Analysis: Key Insights with Carl Allen
Bottom line: Who's gonna win this damn election? A question many are asking. To which, like any good poker player would answer: It depends! Well, at least ya gotta listen to find out. We're on YouTube! Be one of our first 1,000 subscribers: https://www.youtube.com/@politicsandreligion It would mean so much if you could leave us a review: https://ratethispodcast.com/goodfaithpolitics It's so cool to be joined again by Carl Allen to delve into the intricacies of election predictions and polling analysis. In this conversation, we cover the inefficiencies in polling methodologies used by entities like Trafalgar and Atlas Intel to the impact of undecided and third-party voters on electoral outcomes. Important states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina are analyzed, highlighting early voting trends and their potential implications for candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The role of prediction markets and Democratic strategies in key Senate races and swing states are also scrutinized, offering insights into the dynamics of voter behavior and the critical factors shaping the 2024 general election. Throughout, the significance of accurate, transparent data in informing the public and predicting election results is emphasized. And of course we had to squeeze in a bit of poker talk! 01:13 Discussing Election Predictions 05:24 Diving into Poll Data 06:25 Pennsylvania Poll Analysis 10:40 Understanding Polling Discrepancies 31:17 Forecasting Pennsylvania's Outcome 38:47 Significance of Third Parties in Elections 40:22 Swing States Analysis: North Carolina 41:38 Registered vs. Likely Voter Polls 45:11 Undecided Voters and Polling Errors 49:31 Late Breakers and Election Predictions 01:03:04 Senate Races and Calculated Risks substack.com/@realcarlallen https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1032483024 https://x.com/RealCarlAllen We're on Patreon! Join the community: https://www.patreon.com/politicsandreligion Let us know what you think. You can find Corey on all the socials @coreysnathan such as www.threads.net/@coreysnathan. Talkin' Politics & Religion Without Killin' Each Other is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Very grateful for our sponsor Meza Wealth Management. Reach out to Jorge and his team: www.mezawealth.com