Adam Tooze/Shockwave
David and Helen talk to Adam Tooze about what we know about the crisis that we didn't know a month ago, and what we still don't have much of a clue about. From fights inside the French government to the fate of the planet, from shale gas to corona bonds, we try to join up the dots. Plus a small update recorded after news of the oil price-drop. Read 'Shockwave' by Adam Tooze in the LRB https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n08/adam-tooze/shockwave. Talking Points: The dominant reality is the scale of the unemployment rate, especially in the U.S. - Michigan’s unemployment rate soared to 25% in a single month. - We have often seen an extraordinary policy response. The Fed’s initial policy response was a failure: they didn’t stabilize share and bond markets. But it has now, at least in part, succeeded. - It also seems to have stabilized dollar funding markets. - The Fed did in about 3 days what took roughly a year in ‘07/’08. - Will these actions make democratic politics more difficult in the medium term? The Fed’s ability to act in certain ways has depended on congressional cooperation. - This could change if Biden were elected. Trump’s presidency enables the GOP to behave more pragmatically. - The shale industry is being bailed out—this is a tricky issue for the Democratic party. Is data the new oil? - The tensions between Russia and Saudi crashed into the virus. - It’s hard to see how oil prices will recover any time soon. - Are we entering the oil endgame? If so, seizing market share immediately is much more important. - The oil and the financial elements of this crisis are closely connected. Has anyone moved the dial on corona bonds? - The Germans didn’t want the question to be put, but the French went ahead and did it. - But Macron’s recent interview with the Financial Times was vague. How serious are they? - How does the Eurozone engage in common borrowing without engaging in common taxation? Mentioned in this Episode: - Our last episode with Adam - David and Helen talking to Nate Silver - Adam’s piece for the LRB on COVID and the global economy - Macron’s interview with the Financial Times… on YouTube - The transcript of Macron’s FT interview Further Learning: - 538 on American unemployment numbers - More on ‘coronabonds’ And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking For information regarding your data privacy, visit acast.com/privacy