Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky
Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US. Content Highlights There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03); The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37); The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46); The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12) With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05); Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44); One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56); Background on the guest (22:56); Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32); The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35). More Information on the Guest Website: MillerResource.com; LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky; Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).