Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long. Content Highlights The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40); Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43); Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09); Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00); The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59); What to make of the banks? (21:14); One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30); The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28); Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13); More about the Guest Twitter: @InvictusMacro; Website: Invictus-Research.com. Not investment advice.