Inflation: on porridge, prices and the new normal
What do porridge and prices have in common? How do music and video streaming affect inflation? And is low inflation the new normal? Our host Michael Steen discusses with guests Christiane Nickel, Frank Smets, and ECB Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. In this episode: (00:45) Keeping prices stable Why should prices go up, what is the link between wages and prices, and how does working towards our inflation target help to stabilise the economy? (12:07) The new normal How are changes in price measured, what factors drive inflation, and how do globalisation, demographics and e-commerce affect inflation? (23:20) Forecasting inflation Why do central banks need to provide accurate forecasts, how are these forecasts produced, and why can this process be challenging? The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 31 October 2019 and recorded on 10 and 14 October 2019. Further reading Explainer: Why are stable prices important? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers/tell-me-more/html/stableprices.en.html Conference: Inflation in a changing economic environment https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20190923_inflation_conference.en.html Speech: Monetary policy and below-target inflation https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp190701~0c1fa3c8fc.en.html Research: Low inflation in the euro area: causes and consequences https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop181.en.pdf Research: Expert group studying the causes of low inflation (LIFT) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-research/research-networks/html/researcher_lift.en.html Research: The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op221~38185e6936.en.pdf Publication: Macroeconomic projections https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank website https://www.ecb.europa.eu/