Tamay Besiroglu on AI in 2030: Scaling, Automation, and AI Agents

Tamay Besiroglu joins the podcast to discuss scaling, AI capabilities in 2030, breakthroughs in AI agents and planning, automating work, the uncertainties of investing in AI, and scaling laws for inference-time compute. Here's the report we discuss in the episode:   https://epochai.org/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030   Timestamps:  00:00 How important is scaling?   08:03 How capable will AIs be in 2030?   18:33 AI agents, reasoning, and planning  23:39 Automating coding and mathematics   31:26 Uncertainty about investing in AI  40:34 Gap between investment and returns   45:30 Compute, software and data  51:54 Inference-time compute  01:08:49 Returns to software R&D   01:19:22 Limits to expanding compute

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The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit working to reduce global catastrophic and existential risk from powerful technologies. In particular, FLI focuses on risks from artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, nuclear weapons and climate change. The Institute's work is made up of three main strands: grantmaking for risk reduction, educational outreach, and advocacy within the United Nations, US government and European Union institutions. FLI has become one of the world's leading voices on the governance of AI having created one of the earliest and most influential sets of governance principles: the Asilomar AI Principles.