Currents 057: Timothy Clancy on Russia’s Mid-Game
Continuing his series of expert interviews on the Russia-Ukraine War, Jim talks with Timothy Clancy about forecasting the conflict through mid-May. They discuss five likely mid-game scenarios, Ukraine as a Go board, how urban combat has changed in the 21st century, the "belt" strategy, Grozny Rules, creating feral cities, Putin's unknown "maximum acceptable atrocity" limit, the danger of extreme swings in analysis, a quicksand strategy for Ukraine & why it could be good for the West, Ukraine as a risk to Putin's control of Russia, how Putin has provided a common point of unification for Ukraine & NATO, simulation factors for Ukrainian insurgency, overwhelming violence's galvanizing effects, the Goode ratio, limited usefulness of the historical record & unpredictability of new tech, the right level of international friction to avoid going up the escalation ladder, and much more.