#202 Steve Hanke: A Recession Is Still On The Way — What the Money Supply Tells Us About The Economy
Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0 Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke 02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation 04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction 07:29 European economic situation 10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates 15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability 21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields 25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends 27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory 31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets) 38:17 Economic policies of candidates 42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism 45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP 48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements 50:22 Closing remarks