#204 David Woo: 'So Many Things Can Go Wrong' — The Market Is Too Complacent Right Now About The Risk Of Israel-Iran War. Buy Your Investment Protection Before The Election.
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 204 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics and geopolitics. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48). Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo 00:59 Overview of macro picture, analysis of US labor market and economic data 03:22 Discussion on Chinese economy and stimulus measures 05:46 Impact of US-China rivalry on European economy, especially Germany 08:07 Critique of Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision 10:28 Explanation of illegal immigration's impact on economic data 13:29 Analysis of upcoming US election and potential market impacts 16:57 Discussion on potential Israeli attack on Iran before US election 21:13 Analysis of Iran's military capabilities and potential conflict 25:36 Reasons for potential Israeli attack before US election 31:03 Investment strategies for different election scenarios 36:05 Analysis of polling data and election predictions 51:30 Demographic analysis of voter support for candidates 54:49 Discussion on risks to Trump's candidacy 57:27 Potential implications of a Trump victory 59:53 Speculations on potential Trump administration policies and team