#216 Chris Whalen: If Trump Administration Gets Serious About Deficit, Rates Will Fall Without Fed
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ Timestamps: **Timestamps:** 00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen 00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview 03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent 05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications 06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates 07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization 09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook 11:25 Housing market forecast 13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 17:16 GSE stock trading outlook 19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative 21:49 Recession and credit market concerns 23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator 25:49 Gold policy recommendations 27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis 29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook 31:35 Government headcount reduction impact 34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets