Ep. 85 - Metaculus: Aggregating emotions, expertise, and data into Prediction Engine
Part 2 of Max's discussion with Anthony Aguirre, cofounder of the Metaculus prediction engine. Topics include:- The difference between making short term, long term, and theoretical predictions- The human mind and human emotions - as imperfect as they are - being world's best tool for prediction making- Calibrating your probabilities, on an individual and group level- Predictions of humor-detecting AI, waking up after being cryogenically frozen, and political developmentslocalmaxradio.com/85metaculus.com Get full access to The Local Maximum at localmaximum.substack.com/subscribe