97: Expected vs. Actual Win Rates When Selling Options [SPY Short Strangle Backtest]

Show notes: http://optionalpha.com/show97 Today we're going to use our new Trader's Toolbox and options backtesting software to test win rates when selling options. Because the truth is many people have this huge "rub" with options trading and expected vs. actual win rates. They assume that if we place a new trade with an initial probability of success of 70% that the trade will win at exactly 70% over the long-term. As you'll see today, that's just not the case when you account for the impli...

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At Option Alpha we are devoted to empowering traders with simple, powerful tools supported by world-class research and education. For far too long the options industry has been fragmented, lagging, and unnecessarily complex. By developing industry-first automation technology, enhancing data and information accessibility, and nurturing our thriving community at every level, Option Alpha is changing the way people trade options forever. We’re more than just a software company; we’re leading a movement of traders at every level who are unlocking more freedom through improved and expanded options.