The Iceman Goeth, Robots Cometh – Ep. 229
* The Dow finished with yet another gain today
* We closed at 20,775.60
* I've been told that this is the longest consecutive winning streak for the Dow Jones since 1987
* Of course, we all remember how that streak came to a crashing end in October with the 1987 stock market crash
* We'll see if the market has better luck this time around
* We got the FOMC minutes released earlier today
* I think they were interpreted as being hawkish; remember, this is all on a relative scale, they're all doves now
* It is simply degrees of dovishness, there are no actual hawks on the FOMC or on any central bank
* The question is, "Who is more dovish and how dovish can you be?"
* But there were some statements that caused the markets to think, "Hey, maybe a rate hike is coming."
* Because I think the members said it would be appropriate to raise rates sometime soon
* What is sometime soon?
* Is that March, or is that April, May or June?
* That's still soon, in the scheme of things
* If you look at how slowly the Fed has been moving
* Glacial speed, when it comes to raising rates
* Soon can certainly be a few months from now
* It doesn't necessarily mean that it is going to be March
* They could have said March - "It might be appropriate to raise rates in March"
* They didn't say March - they just said soon
* Nobody really knows what soon is
* They did comment that they thought the markets might interpret gradual rate increases as meaning only 1 or 2 rate hikes a year
* And they were troubled by that, because maybe by saying that, by gradual, they mean 3 a year
* Not 1 or 2
* I heard some people saying,
* "Maybe the Fed is not going to go slowly."
* Even if they do 3 - we're still talking very gradual rate hikes, especially if you put it in context of how low rates are right now and how high inflation is already
* I keep hearing these comments from Fed officials
* They're doing interviews and they're saying, "Yes, we're making progress; we're moving slowly toward our goal of 2% inflation."
* 2% inflation! They left that in the dust
* The last number we got in January showed a year over year increase of 2.5%
* So why are they saying they're making progress toward getting to 2% when they've already zoomed past it
* They're looking at it now in the rear view mirror