Is there room for tentative optimism?
The S&P 500 has just capped its longest winning streak in over a century, encouraged by better data on inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings. However, data remains volatile and it is possible that markets have moved too far too fast. Valuations now leave little margin for error. July saw the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raise rates once again, though many economists expect this to be the peak. However, central banks are keeping their options open and have made it clear they will respond to new data as it emerges. There are also strains in the fixed income market, with credit spreads tightening as economic data improves. While there are still opportunities in both equity and fixed income markets, it argues for a selective and balanced approach to asset selection.