SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?10:59 - Industry performance update14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets34:31 - It takes two to crisis39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?41:56 - Is price all we need?50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?56:39 - Words of estimative probability01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is01:02:58 - Skew in trend following01:05:38 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in