Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and Tidewater $TDW
Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it. Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now? 5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014 10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon 18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates 21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike 25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players? 30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle? 36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill 39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics 42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy 46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore? 54:40 Haven't the stocks already run? 59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?